Post by Diarist on Jul 14, 2014 20:24:25 GMT 1
This is our third day at sea - two more days ahead of us. HMS Renown is a huge ship, and fast too. It has a maximum speed of 32 knots but we are not travelling that fast. We are escorted by a couple of light cruisers and half a dozen destroyers.
Winston Churchill is the head of our delegation and that underlines the military emphasis of this visit. To pass the time we have been given the task of considering options against Italy in the event of an attack on Abyssinia. We have reports of large convoys of troops and equipment passng through the Suez Canal since the beginning of this month. What are Mussolini's plans?
This is not an easy situation. What if we were to close the Suez Canal to Italian shipping? The Convention of Constantinople from 1888 requires that the canal be open to all nations in times peace or war. That didn't stop Britain closing it to enemy shipping during the Great War, but we are not at war. What would Italian forces in Libya do if we closed the canal? Our forces in Egypt are greatly outnumbered as is the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean at the moment. In fact, our build-up of forces may precipitate a conflict instead of deterring it.
Another question is how many Italian forces can Eritrea and Somaliland support? They are not exactly lands of milk and honey. The more troops we allow through the Suez Canal, the more difficult it would be to support them. We have supply sources on both sides of the canal so we wouldn't be dependant upon supplies coming from Britain. General Gort said that if he were the Italian commander in Eritrea and the British closed the canal he might decide to forget Abyssinia and march on Port Sudan to the North and Khartoum on the Nile in support of operations from Libya against Egypt!
If a conflict in East Africa were inevitable it would require a Mediterranean strategy against Italy while at the same time support for indigenous forces in Ethiopia. They need equipment, training and advisors embedded in their formations. Can we do that?
Winston Churchill is the head of our delegation and that underlines the military emphasis of this visit. To pass the time we have been given the task of considering options against Italy in the event of an attack on Abyssinia. We have reports of large convoys of troops and equipment passng through the Suez Canal since the beginning of this month. What are Mussolini's plans?
This is not an easy situation. What if we were to close the Suez Canal to Italian shipping? The Convention of Constantinople from 1888 requires that the canal be open to all nations in times peace or war. That didn't stop Britain closing it to enemy shipping during the Great War, but we are not at war. What would Italian forces in Libya do if we closed the canal? Our forces in Egypt are greatly outnumbered as is the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean at the moment. In fact, our build-up of forces may precipitate a conflict instead of deterring it.
Another question is how many Italian forces can Eritrea and Somaliland support? They are not exactly lands of milk and honey. The more troops we allow through the Suez Canal, the more difficult it would be to support them. We have supply sources on both sides of the canal so we wouldn't be dependant upon supplies coming from Britain. General Gort said that if he were the Italian commander in Eritrea and the British closed the canal he might decide to forget Abyssinia and march on Port Sudan to the North and Khartoum on the Nile in support of operations from Libya against Egypt!
If a conflict in East Africa were inevitable it would require a Mediterranean strategy against Italy while at the same time support for indigenous forces in Ethiopia. They need equipment, training and advisors embedded in their formations. Can we do that?